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COMPEL Glossary / risk-adjusted-npv-rnpv

Risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV)

Net present value with stage-probability and risk-weighted discount applied at each cash-flow stage — capturing both the time value of money and the probability-of-success at each lifecycle gate.

What this means in practice

Appropriate for AI programs where stage-gate survival (build → deploy → adopt → sustain) is probabilistic rather than certain.

Synonyms

rNPV , probability-adjusted NPV

See also

  • AI business case — A six-part document — hypothesis, investment, benefit, risk profile, financial summary, recommendation — that justifies an AI investment with explicit counterfactual and confidence bands.
  • Monte Carlo simulation — A numerical method using repeated random sampling to produce probabilistic uncertainty bands on value forecasts — instead of single-point NPV estimates.
  • Sensitivity Analysis — Sensitivity analysis is a technique that tests how changes in key assumptions affect the outcomes of a business case, financial model, or risk assessment.
  • Stage-gate value review — A COMPEL-stage gate where realized-value-to-date is compared against the business case, and the investment is continued, adjusted, or sunset.