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COMPEL Glossary / leading-indicator

Leading indicator

A metric that moves before the outcome does — predicting near-term outcome trajectory.

What this means in practice

Leading indicators enable early course correction; the trade-off is that they carry more noise than lagging indicators because the outcome has not yet been observed.

Synonyms

leading metric , predictive indicator

See also

  • Lagging indicator — A metric that confirms an outcome after the fact — e.g., quarterly revenue, retention after 90 days, defect rate after release.
  • Primary metric — The single metric whose movement drives an experiment's ship/no-ship decision.
  • KPI tree — A hierarchical decomposition of a business outcome into drivers and metrics — with arithmetic or causal relationships at each level.
  • Measurement plan — A pre-launch document naming hypothesis, metrics, sources, cadence, analysis method, and decision rule for an AI feature.