The COMPEL Glossary Graph visualizes relationships between framework terminology, showing how concepts interconnect across domains, stages, and pillars. Term nodes cluster by pillar affiliation while cross-references reveal semantic dependencies — for example, how risk appetite connects to control effectiveness, model governance, and assurance requirements. This network representation helps practitioners navigate the framework vocabulary and understand that COMPEL terminology forms a coherent conceptual system rather than isolated definitions.
COMPEL Glossary / counterfactual-outcome
Counterfactual outcome
The outcome that would have occurred without the AI intervention — the benchmark against which incremental AI value is measured.
What this means in practice
Estimated via randomised controlled trial, quasi-experiment, or synthetic control; without a counterfactual claim, value estimates cannot distinguish AI impact from macro trends or concurrent initiatives.
Synonyms
counterfactual , but-for outcome
See also
- Incremental value — Delivered outcome minus counterfactual outcome — the only value quantity that survives CFO and audit-committee scrutiny.
- A/B test (RCT) — A randomised controlled trial in which units are randomly assigned to treatment (AI feature) and control (no feature or baseline feature).
- Difference-in-differences (DiD) — A quasi-experimental design comparing treated and control trajectories over time — identifying causal effect from differential change.
- Synthetic control — A counterfactual constructed from a weighted combination of untreated donor units — the "synthetic" version of the treated unit.