COMPEL Glossary / hype-cycle
Hype Cycle
The Hype Cycle is a Gartner model describing the typical progression of emerging technologies through five phases: Technology Trigger (initial breakthrough generates interest), Peak of Inflated Expectations (publicity produces unrealistic enthusiasm), Trough of Disillusionment (implementations fail to deliver on hype), Slope of Enlightenment (practical benefits become understood), and Plateau of Productivity (mainstream adoption with realistic expectations).
What this means in practice
For transformation leaders, the Hype Cycle provides a useful mental model for evaluating AI technologies: generative AI in 2024-2025 may be transitioning from the Peak toward the Trough, while more established AI capabilities like predictive analytics have reached the Plateau. Understanding where a technology sits on the Hype Cycle helps calibrate investment timing and expectations. COMPEL's evidence-based approach to use case evaluation provides a more rigorous alternative to hype-driven technology selection.
Why it matters
Understanding where an AI technology sits on the hype cycle helps calibrate investment timing and expectations. Organizations that invest heavily at the Peak of Inflated Expectations often face disappointment when reality falls short of hype, while those that invest during the Slope of Enlightenment capture value at more realistic cost. The hype cycle provides a useful mental model for distinguishing between genuine capability and market enthusiasm.
How COMPEL uses it
COMPEL's evidence-based approach to use case evaluation during the Model stage provides a more rigorous alternative to hype-driven technology selection. During Calibrate, current technology investments are assessed against actual value delivered. The Model stage requires business case justification for each technology choice, preventing investment decisions driven by vendor hype. The Evaluate stage measures actual outcomes against the projections made during Model.
Related Terms
Other glossary terms mentioned in this entry's definition and context.